Betting Preakness Stakes

24/05/08

Big Brown Has The Triple Crown In His Sights

Belmont, NY (PRWEB) May 22, 2008 -- Big Brown has arrived in New York aiming to make history in the Belmont Stakes by becoming only the twelfth horse to win the American Triple Crown of horse racing. RaceHorseOwner.com identifies the main threat to his chances.

It has been thirty years since Affirmed won the fabled USA Triple Crown of horse racing (the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes) and became the 11th horse to achieve that feat, but when they line up for the 2008 Belmont Stakes few horses will have been in a better position in those three decades to join the list than Big Brown.

There have been many good horses who have won the first two legs only to falter at Belmont. The list of horses is a formidable one:

2004 - Smarty Jones, finished 2nd
2003 - Funny Cide finished 3rd
2002 - War Emblem finished 8th
1999 - Charismatic finished 3rd
1998 - Real Quiet finished 2nd (also ridden by Kent Desormeaux)
1997 - Silver Charm finished 2nd
1989 - Sunday Silence finished 2nd
1987 - Alysheba finished 4th
1981 - Pleasant Colony finished 3rd
1979 - Spectacular Bid finished 3rd

The truth is that most of those horses could not hold a candle to Big Brown, while the ones who were in his class were opposed by horses of equal quality on the crucial day. One thinks of the titanic clash between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, or the desperately close defeats sustained by Silver Charm and Real Quiet in consecutive years. But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that this year's three-year-old crop is average at best, with the obvious exception of Big Brown, and that he will have no Easy Goer to deal with at Belmont. Or will he?

According to the editors at RaceHorseOwner.com the biggest challenge to the imperious Boundary colt who is trained by the man who does not know the meaning of the word hubris, Rick Dutrow Jr., could well be the new challenger from Japan, Casino Drive. This horse is related to Jazil (2006 Belmont Stakes winner) and Rags To Riches (2007 Belmont Stakes winner), and he seems genetically engineered to play the role of spoiler. He also has excellent form leading up to this race. Dutrow's response to the challenge was typically arrogant when he said he would make his way to the winner's circle at the quarter pole and that Casino Drive had no chance of staying with his horse. He's probably right, but he's not making many new friends with his attitude.

Horse racing needs a feel-good story, and a Triple Crown winner would be a great boost for a flagging industry. In addition it would set up the most-anticipated match race in living memory in the USA as both Curlin and Big Brown would then be pointed for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Dutrow has already suggested that Curlin will be no match for his colt. Time will tell.

08/05/08

Second largest Derby crowd gathers for 134th running

The largest Kentucky Derby crowd of the 21st century gathered under the historic Twin Spires to watch undefeated favorite BIG BROWN (Boundary) power through the stretch and dominate a full field of 20 horses in Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1).

The attendance mark of 157,770 was the second largest in Kentucky Derby history and trails only the crowd of 163,628 that witnessed Cannonade win the centennial Derby in 1974. It is the seventh time in 10 years that Kentucky Derby Day attendance has topped 150,000.

Total wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby, which includes on-track and off-track wagers, was $114,557,364, down 3.2 percent from the 2007 all-sources total of $118,317,714. On-track wagering for the Derby totaled $12,118,527, an increase of 0.3 percent compared to the $12,076,490 wagered on the race in 2007. Off-track wagering on the Run for the Roses race was $102,438,837, a decrease of 3.6 percent compared to the $106,241,224 wagered by fans through simulcast-wagering centers and advanced-deposit wagering (ADW) services around the country one year ago.

Total wagering from all sources on the 12-race Kentucky Derby Day card at Churchill Downs was $164,668,176, a decline of 2 percent from the $168,018,982 wagered on last year's 12-race program. On-track wagering on this year's card was $24,275,864, an increase of 0.9 percent from the $24,065,098 wagered by on-track fans one year ago. Off-track wagering on the Kentucky Derby Day program was $140,392,312, a dip of 2.5 percent from the $143,953,884 wagered by fans around the country in 2007.

Churchill Downs President Steve Sexton said off-track wagering totals were affected by the fact that tens of thousands of ADW customers could only bet on the Kentucky Derby and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) because Kentucky horsemen would not permit ADW wagering via TwinSpires.com and Xpressbet.com on the full Kentucky Derby Day card. Additionally, fewer Florida pari-mutuel facilities could wager on the entire Derby Day card due to an ongoing dispute with Florida horsemen.

"The strength of this year's Kentucky Derby Day racing program was evident in our on-track results with increases in both on-track wagering and attendance," Sexton noted. "It is unfortunate that horsemen in Kentucky and Florida prevented so many fans from enjoying a full day of wagering on Churchill Downs' races. Had more ADW and Florida customers been given an opportunity to participate, we could have seen a record day.

"Despite these challenges, the Churchill Downs team put on an exceptional day that included the successful launch of several new Derby innovations, including an outstanding Red Carpet program, our chief party officer promotion that was a hit with the fans and the media, and our new Derby Super Hi-5 wager that generated a $331,928 carryover pool. Race fans also generated a Pick 6 carryover pool of $410,598, so while Kentucky Derby weekend may be over for another year, fans returning to Churchill Downs for our next day of racing - Wednesday, May 7 - have another chance to enjoy a big dose of 'winnertainment'."

Kentucky Derby Day attendance increased at Churchill Downs' Trackside Louisville off-track betting facility, where 9,547 race fans wagered on the card, an increase of 2.2 percent compared to the 9,339 patrons who spent Kentucky Derby 133 at Trackside Louisville. Wagering on the Kentucky Derby at Trackside totaled $1,249,941, a slight decline of 0.2 percent from the 2007 total of $1,252,230. A total of $1,905,396 was wagered on the full racing program at Trackside Louisville, an increase of 1.6 percent from the 2007 total of $1,876,257.

Trackside Louisville attendance and wagering figures are not included in on-track attendance and wagering figures for Churchill Downs racetrack.

brisnet.com

01/05/08

Eight Belles to Compete in Kentucky Derby

Rick Porter, owner of Eight Belles, made the decision to start his pride and joy in the Kentucky Derby after the Fantasy Stakes winner worked a rapid five furlongs over the Churchill Downs strip on Sunday.

Eight Belles is entered in Friday's Oaks, keeping her options open, and will be a prohibitive favorite over her stable mate Proud Spell if she chooses to remain in the Oaks field.

Former Kentucky Gov. Brereton Jones, who is no relation to trainer Larry Jones, owns Proud Spell and is considering the Preakness if his filly does well on Friday.

Only 38 fillies have competed in the Derby and their success has been minimal. Excellent Meeting and Three Ring are the most recent, finishing fifth and 19th respectively in 1999. Exceptional filly Serena's Song was a distant 16th in 1995, despite being favored at 3-1. She completed her career with 18 wins and retired as one of the great race mares of all time.

Only three fillies have won the Run for the Roses, starting with Regret in 1915. Regret was undefeated against her own sex and took the 1915 Horse of the Year title. It took 65 years before the feat was accomplished again when Genuine Risk, a flashy chestnut with a ton of ability got the job done in 1980.

This brings us to the last female Derby winner and perhaps the most impressive. Winning Colors, an enormous gray filly with dominating speed, led the 1988 Derby from gate to wire. Her win came as no surprise, coming off a 7 1/2 length win over the boys in the Santa Anita Derby.

Like Winning Colors, who passed away earlier this year, Eight Belles has the physical stature to compete in the Derby and her record coming into the race is impressive. However, one of the few things veteran horsemen throughout the racing world always agree on is that the Kentucky Derby is racing's most elusive prize - for a colt or filly.

25/04/08

Undefeated Big Brown must defy history to win May 3

There is an unmistakable mystique that envelops the undefeated horse in the Kentucky Derby, the role in which the mercurial Big Brown is cast for the 134th running.

The aura of perfection glows brightly in a world accustomed to and comfortable with an 80 percent rate of failure. When a 3-year-old thoroughbred arrives free of blemish in Kentucky in advance of the first weekend of May, the so-far unstoppable force faces the sport's most daunting challenge short of winning the Triple Crown, the most difficult race in which he (or occasionally she) may ever compete, a test rife with challenge and peril. When such a horse remains unbowed after the Derby, the niche of sport in which racing exists is transcended.

Big Brown looks the part. Even to the untrained eye, he is a physically imposing chestnut, a combination of brawn with speed. He moved seamlessly from turf to dirt and effortlessly from allowance to Grade 1 company, winning the Florida Derby with absolute authority in what has been the most-impressive 9-furlong win of the season by any member of his generation. There is a song about him on You Tube, not a good song, but an exuberant tribute nevertheless. Big Brown already has fans and depending upon whose opinion is offered, he is either the Derby favorite or second-choice. To those who believe he has no chance, this is a betting opportunity.

He is either exactly what horse racing's leaders await, the dominant, unbending heroic figure, 1-5 every time he runs, an animal to whom children will write letters in crayon, or a disappointment in wait for the wheels to come off.

For all the potential, there is much for Big Brown to overcome on May 3.

A sparse campaign is not the trademark of trainer Rick Dutrow and a six-month gap in Big Brown's form was made necessary by hoof problems. No hoof, no horse, as they say, and infirm extremities in the thoroughbred are usually chronic.

He did not begin the season as a Derby prospect, but became one only last month after an explosive win in a race moved from turf to dirt at Gulfstream Park inspired his connections to change direction and target the Florida Derby. Were the Kentucky Derby the principal objective from the outset of Big Brown's season and his feet not a problem, his preparation would likely have been more comprehensive. Were it not for rainy weather in Florida, Big Brown would be awaiting the summer's races on turf in New York.

Though many top-class horses have attempted the Derby after having had only two prep races in the last 60 years, only two winners, Sunny's Halo a quarter-century ago, and Street Sense last year, arrived in Louisville so lightly raced at age 3. The list of those who have failed in the attempt includes Lemon Drop Kid, the eventual Belmont Stakes winner in 1999; Point Given, winner of the Preakness and Belmont; and Birdstone, winner of the Belmont and Travers. If Big Brown fails, he is in good company. If he succeeds, it will be at the expense of more history that any Derby winner of the modern era has been able to overcome. Big Brown will attempt to defy not only his own lack of seasoning, but yet another and perhaps more imposing trend that actually predates the Triple Crown.

The one undefeated Derby winner with only three prior starts is Regret, a filly who, in an era when careers were long and active raced only 11 times over a four-year span but defeated males at ages 2, 3, 4 and 5 and was never beaten by a female. She would, however, not win another race beyond a mile after the 1915 Derby, which was also her first start as a 3-year-old. Regret, apparently, was capable of many things beyond the merely great horse. She led 15 opponents from gate to wire in the Derby but did not race again until July, when she won the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga, a race followed by an 11-month layoff.

A year after Regret, a horse named Thunderer went to Kentucky with three wins at his back and finished fifth. After Thunderer, no horse undefeated but so lightly raced was asked to attempt the Derby until 2000, when China Visit, winner of just two races beforehand, finished sixth in Louisville.

Barbaro, pre-sainthood, and Smarty Jones were undefeated going into their tour de force victories at Churchill Downs. Barbaro had run five times before the Derby, Smarty Jones had six wins, as did Seattle Slew, the only horse ever to win the Triple Crown while undefeated. Between Regret and Seattle Slew, in 1977, two undefeated Derby winners -- Morvich, in 1922, and Majestic Prince, in 1969 -- were separated by 55 years.

The preponderance of negative history establishes Big Brown as a mandatory bet-against horse at a short price on May 3. Betting on this colt as the favorite would require the conviction that he is capable of things not seen in most lifetimes. It has been a long, long time since Regret. Then again, 83 years ago she was the betting favorite.

10/04/08

Trainer McLaughlin sweeps weekend stakes

The last laugh went to Keep Laughing, a $12.40 winner Sunday of the $110,300 Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland.

Most fans probably did not realize how good a bet the son of Distorted Humor was: last year at the Keeneland Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale, he breezed in one of the fastest recorded times.

But a foot injury he may have suffered during that workout caused Brandon Perry of Vision Racing to withdraw him from the sale.

Given the rest of his juvenile season off, Keep Laughing has done just that in three starts this year, winning twice for the owner who pulled him from the sale last year.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin -- represented at Keeneland by his brother, Neal -- was winning a Keeneland stakes race for the second consecutive day, after taking the $500,000 Ashland Stakes with Little Belle on Saturday.

Both winners were overlooked in the betting. And both winners scored narrow victories after battling with the runner-up through the deep stretch. Little Belle won the Ashland by a neck while fighting off Bsharpsonata; Keep Laughing took the Lafayette by a nose over Hatta Fort, with Eaton's Gift finishing third.

The even-money favorite, Kodiak Kowboy, finished fourth in the field of seven that raced 7 furlongs in 1:22.26.

McLaughlin said one of the reasons for returning Keep Laughing to Keeneland was to gauge whether he belongs with Triple Crown-type horses.

The answer now is yes. One Triple Crown race you might see this colt try out is the Preakness Stakes (May 17), according to McLaughlin.

"We've always been high on him. He proved today he's worth that praise," McLaughlin said.

Keep Laughing came from third, moving up to second at the top of the stretch. He caught Eaton's Gift in midstretch and then held off the late challenge from Hatta Fort to get his victory.

John Velazquez, who rode the winner, said Keep Laughing gave a little more, "every time I asked him."

Garrett Gomez, rider of Hatta Fort, said he thought that colt, owned by Godolphin Racing, raced very well, particularly since this was his first start in the United States. Previously he had raced in England and France.

03/04/08

Big dreams have paid off for owner

As the $500,000 Grade II Lane's End Stakes unfolds Saturday at Turfway Park, one of the horses under close scrutiny will be Racecar Rhapsody.

He is a colt whose owner dreams large, whose trainer knows how to pick out a diamond at the auctions and whose name might have been Nextale Cup had Jerry Carroll not reconsidered upon dreaming big and losing a chance to host the Sprint (formerly Nextel) Cup.

Carroll is owner and developer of Kentucky Speedway, a former owner of Turfway Park, a sometimes racehorse owner who had been out of the game for about four years, and a man whose friends thought he was nuts for getting back in.

"Somebody told me when I bought the horse, 'Jerry, you'd better go see your psychiatrist,'" Carroll said.

His answer: "I did go see my psychiatrist. He's partners with me."

So it is that Carroll has put his dream of getting the Nextel Cup at Kentucky Speedway aside (for the moment, but not forever) and partnered in Racecar Rhapsody with Dr. Stanley Kaplan, philanthropist and professor emeritus of psychiatry at the University of Cincinnati. Ken McPeek is the trainer.

The dream right now is to see this son of Tale of the Cat get good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. Carroll and Kaplan have two minor partners in the colt -- Marc Guilfoil and Ron Plattner -- but Carroll holds 70 percent and thus, carries the greatest risk.

Carroll has spent his business lifetime carrying risk while dreaming big. When he bought into Latonia Race Course (renamed Turfway) in 1986, he also began to develop the area surrounding the racecourse.

"A developer can see roads where other people can't," Carroll said at the time.

With Latonia situated in the middle of a vast nowhere smack against a two-lane road, it was hard to see the big picture Carroll entertained.

But this man who moved to Kentucky from Nashville was instrumental in turning that area into the populous, traffic-heavy, built-up chunk of land it became. The Interstate 75 exit close to the track was not part of the landscape when Carroll brought in bulldozers and a big dream.

Then Carroll got the idea to take a regional race called the Spiral Stakes and develop it into a nationally recognized prep for the Kentucky Derby. He partnered with Jim Beam in a sponsorship deal that gave the race its best-remembered name, the Jim Beam Stakes.

He brought in celebrities to boost publicity. He got major-league racing stables to send horses. The race produced an eventual Kentucky Derby winner, and winners of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes as well as a 3-year-old filly champion.

During the 1980s Carroll pushed hard for simulcast wagering in Kentucky, though he took abuse for it from operators of the two major racetracks. He was dreaming big again -- but he was right. When simulcast betting became legal, it boosted purses so high that for the first time, major stables from throughout the country raced regularly in Kentucky. It saved racing in this state.

Carroll also was a longtime proponent of casino gambling. But for years, that issue has gone nowhere. It was when casinos in nearby states had begun operating simultaneously with Turfway that Carroll sold the track in 1999 and developed Kentucky Speedway a year later.

Carroll dreamed big at the speedway and has filled the stands with 70,000-plus fans for the NASCAR Nationwide Series. But thus far, his dream to get a Sprint Cup race has fallen flat.

He was still hoping to get such a race when he nearly named Racecar Rhapsody Nextale Cup.

"If they weren't going to give me a Nextel race, I wasn't going to name my horse that," he said. So, the colt (whose dam is Reflect the Music) became Racecar Rhapsody. The colt has seemed special since his first start when he left the gate slowly, then came from last to finish second at Keeneland in a sprint. Most recently, he ran fourth in the Delta Jackpot.

The Lane's End, at 11/8 miles, is the marquee event on a multistakes program that will include three other stakes. Halo Najib is the morning-line favorite in the Lane's End, followed closely by Turf War.

In the $50,000 Queen Stakes at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 3 years old and up, Gem Sleuth, with Edgar Prado riding, was made morning- line favorite. In the $50,000 Hansel Stakes at six furlongs for 3-year-olds, U.S. Cavalry has a slight edge in the morning line.

In the $150,000 Grade III Bourbonette Stakes, A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy will vie for post-time favoritism.

The Rushaway Stakes, ungraded at 11/16 miles, should see Miner's Claim a slight favorite over Icabad Crane.

29/03/08

Lane's End Stakes: Big dreams have paid off for owner